DCAreaWx

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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Published: May 8, 2022

May has arrived in full force. No, the birds are not chirping and the sun is not shining. It's 50 degrees and raining, and I'm once again questioning why I live in the DC area. 2022 has passed by quickly, and we're just one week from when the NHC begins to regularly issue tropical weather outlooks. With that in mind, it's time to take our first look at the upcoming hurricane season. Before I get into the details, I just want to note how consistent our...

2021-22 Winter Forecast

Published: November 22, 2021

It's been a quiet fall. The end of the hurricane season has been surprisingly inactive, with only a couple of sloppy tropical storms to speak of. There also hasn't been much in the way of early season snow for much of the Northeast, though we have seen a couple of impressive mid-latitude cyclones. Despite all this, we've reached mid-November, and it's time to discuss the upcoming winter. I'll begin by briefly discussing my temperature and...

2021 Revised Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Published: June 15, 2021

We're a couple weeks into the hurricane season, and parts of the tropics are beginning to wake up. The tropics are rather active close to home, especially for this time of year. We even have an area of interest in the deep tropics, though this area should still remain quiet for the foreseeable future, as peak hurricane season doesn't truly begin until mid/late August. We're much closer to this period than we were when I made my first...

2021 Preliminary Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Published: April 24, 2021

The 2020 hurricane season was record-breaking in many ways. The records for number of named storms, US landfalls, and rapidly intensifying systems were all tied or broken. Arguably the most impressive stat was the fact that we had a Category 4 and a Category 5 hurricane (Eta and Iota respectively) form in the month of November. It feels like we just finished wrapping up the endless 2020 hurricane season, but...

2020-21 Winter Forecast

Published: November 27, 2020

With the talk of potential winter systems on the horizon, it's time for me to make my annual winter forecast. Last winter wasn't very winterlike, with Washington DC not even picking up an inch of snow. While I'd love to say that this winter looks much more promising, the overall pattern just doesn't look very favorable. In this forecast, I'll first be breaking down my temperature and precipitation...

2020 Revised Hurricane Season Forecast

Published: June 14, 2020

While we are less than two weeks into the Atlantic hurricane season, we have already seen three named storms. 2020 has broken the record for the earliest third named storm with Cristobal. An active early season has little correlation to the rest of the season, but a very active season is expected nevertheless. In my revised forecast for the 2020 hurricane season, I have bumped up my numbers slightly, but...

2020 Preliminary Hurricane Season Forecast

Published: April 17, 2020

Hurricane season is approaching quickly, and we're under two months away from its official start. However, we are still far from the peak of the season, but it doesn't hurt to take an early look at some of the factors that go into a hurricane season. Below, I'll be discussing the ENSO, VP anomalies, the NAO, SST anomalies, and some of the climate models. I'll be leaving out the Saharan Air Layer...

Why Was This Winter So Quiet?

Published: March 8, 2020

This winter hasn't really felt like winter. Aside from a few cold (but not frigid) blasts, it was more like November spread over a 3 month period. And the amount of snow DCA saw was comparable to many November storms that we've had. But why was this winter so unwinterlike? Let's start by looking at the arctic. During winter, the arctic is the dominant producer of the weather in the mid-latitudes...

Official Forecast for the Winter of 2019-20

Published: November 10, 2019

Yes, I know you've probably read this hundreds of times and felt the changes firsthand, but it's that time of year again. November; the month where the warm, moist air of the tropics battles the cold, dry air of the arctic (though the cold air seems to be in firm control this November). During this month, winter forecasts get released left and right, and sometimes, we are already...

2019 Revised Hurricane Outlook

Published: June 6, 2019

Hurricane season officially started around a week ago, and it's time to really start thinking about what we're in for this year. We still have a while before things really ramp up, but the ocean is slowly starting to become a more favorable place for tropical genesis. In my first forecast, my thoughts favored a slightly below average season, but now, I'm thinking we could be seeing...

2019 Preliminary Hurricane Outlook

Published: April 7, 2019

While in some places, it feels like winter will never end, hurricane season is looming, and the start of it is less than two months away. Yes, the bulk of these tropical cyclones won't form until August, but I wanted to take an early look on what could be in store for us in the 2019 hurricane season. The first thing we have to look at when talking about anything climatology related is...

Official 2018-19 Winter Forecast

Published: November 4, 2018

When Will The Hurricane Season Come Alive?

Published: August 8, 2018

The Atlantic basin has been dead since the middle of July, but Subtropical Storm Debby has emerged in the Atlantic. Debby will be no threat to land, and barely even classifies as a tropical cyclone. So when will the Atlantic hurricane season truly start to ramp up?Late August onward seems like a reasonable prediction, for a few reasons. Things have all of a sudden become more favorable in...